Thursday, June 30, 2011

Is Kerry Kittles' Record Unbreakable?


I was so convinced that Scottie Reynolds was going to break Kerry Kittles school record of 2,243 points that I was counting down the number of points he needed to set the record. Ultimately, Scottie fell crushingly short, and it simply underscored how difficult it is for someone to score that many points in this day in age.

To assess the difficulty of this, one must understand the current landscape of college basketball.  In modern college basketball, only extraordinary circumstances would prevent a player with 1,500+ career points after his junior year from going pro. In Scottie's case, this extraordinary circumstance was his lack of NBA-caliber athleticism. In 2011, there is little to no chance that Kittles would have returned to Villanova after leading his team to a Big East tournament championship and winning conference player of the year.

Another thing to consider is the number of games necessary to do this. Scottie played 139 games in his career, 17 more than Kittles, who played in 122 games and averaged over two points per game more (18.4-16.0). Not every player will play as many games as Scottie, who had a pair of deep NCAA tournament runs, but the chances are that they will also play more games than Kittles. If the average player plays 130 career games in a four year career, it would take 17.3 points per game over a career to attain this. 

This is certainly an attainable record in theory, I personally do not think anybody will do it for quite a long while, unless there are extraordinary circumstances. You consider that Kerry Kittles has held the record for 15 years already, and when 2014 rolls around, he'll be the all time scoring leader at Villanova for a longer period than anyone else in the history of the program.

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