Friday, August 19, 2011

Using Advanced Stats To Dig Deeper Into Isaiah Armwood's Departure

Yesterday, I opined that the worst thing about losing Isaiah Armwood would be more playing time for Maurice Sutton. Well, this morning I decided to look at Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free statistics for Villanova from this past season, and I came to the alarming conclusion that Armwood was actually less effective than Sutton in the 2010-2011, yet he was still being given around twice the minutes. The numbers were especially alarming due to the fact that the Armwood's metrics indicated little improvement from his freshman to sophomore year, and suggest that he may have even regressed. Sutton on the other hand, made a noticable improvement between his freshman and sophomore seasons. Is this a function of Sutton's extra year in the program? I don't know. What I do know is that it's alarming to see how little improvement Armwood made, and somewhat encouraging to see what Sutton was able to do.

Comparing Sutton and Armwood in 2011 using advanced statistics:

%Min: 21.5-41.1 
ORtg: 97.6-95.4
%Poss: 14.7-10.8
%Shots: 10.0-7.4
eFG%: 53.8- 49.1
TS%: 56.9-53.4
OR%: 8.4-9.2
DR%: 17.2-15.5
ARate: 4.0-3.3
TORate: 25.6-28.4
Blk%: 11.2-5.0
FC/40: 7.4-4.0
FD/40: 4.3-2.6
FTRate: 102.6-72.7 
glossary of terms here and here

As you can see from the numbers, Sutton has the edge in all but a few categories. The numbers clearly demonstrate that Isaiah Armwood not Maurice Sutton was the worst player on the team, and that Sutton was also better on defense. Armwood was still probably the second best post defender on the 2010-2011 team, and that's where his departure will sting the most, but it doesn't look like he will ever be a starting caliber player on a Big East team. In such a guard oriented offense, a post player at Villanova must have some offensive ability, and it doesn't seem like Armwood was able to fit that bill.

This doesn't make me think that Maurice Sutton should see more meaningful minutes against good teams unless he shows something to earn those minutes, but it alters my perception (and should alter the perceptions of others) that he was the worst offensive player on the floor last season. His year to year improvement on the offensive end also gives hope that he could perhaps be a useful rotation player down the line.

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