Friday, December 21, 2012

Villanova-Monmouth Primer

Villanova is not a particularly good shooting basketball team. Their team field goal percentage is ranked 246th in the country, and their two point field goal percentage is 262nd. While this is bad, they make up for it by being 157th in the country in three point field goal percentage, which is pretty much exactly in the middle of the road nationally.

Villanova's opponent tomorrow, Monmouth is 325th in the nation in field goal percentage, 316th in two point field goal percentage, and 299th in three point field goal percentage. Now, according to Ken Pomeroy, their opposing defense strength of schedule has been the 52nd most difficult in the country, so there is that, but the opposing defense strength of schedule that Villanova has been facing has been even more difficult, at 28, so the fact that Villanova still shoots much better than Monmouth despite Monmouth's less difficult defensive schedule really highlights how bad Monmouth is offensively (KenPom has their adjusted offensive efficiency the 319th best in the country compared to Villanova, which is 109th).

That being said, Monmouth is much better defensively than they are offensively, but their adjusted defensive ranking of 182nd is still in the lower half of the country.

Now there IS the wildcard of Villanova inexplicably playing an away game against an NEC team, so that probably accounts for about three points or so, but Villanova should still be double digit favorites over Monmouth based on the fact that they dwarf them in just about every category.

That is if the game gets played and the world doesn't end.

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